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Provided to you Exclusively by Robin Bowman
Robin Bowman
NMLS ID #137160
Trident Mortgage
Office: 215-619-0541
Email: robin.bowman@tridentmortgage.com
Robin Bowman
For the week of Jun 25, 2018 --- Vol. 16, Issue 26
 
  In This Issue  
     
 
Last Week in Review: Existing Home Sales fell in May. Housing Starts signaled potential hope for would-be buyers.

Forecast for the Week: The busy economic calendar brings news on housing, inflation, consumer attitudes and the state of the U.S. economy.

View: Anticipating frequently asked questions and common challenges can create a smoother client experience.

 
 
 
Last Week in Review  
     
 
"There's something happening here, and what it is ain't exactly clear." Buffalo Springfield. Sales of existing homes fell for the second straight month in May, with low inventory being a clear reason why.

May Existing Home Sales fell 0.4 percent from April to an annual rate of 5.43 million units, the National Association of REALTORS® reported. From May 2017 to May 2018, Existing Home Sales were down 3 percent. While sales rose in the Northeast in May, they fell in the Midwest, West and South. Inventory of homes for sale on the market remains low with a 4.1-month supply, below the 6 months seen as normal.

Lawrence Yun, the NAR chief economist, said, "Inventory coming onto the market during this spring's buying season ... was not even close enough to satisfy demand."

The latest Housing Starts report had some good news for would-be buyers struggling with limited inventory, as the Commerce Department reported that new home construction surged in May. Housing Starts rose 5 percent from April to an annual rate of 1.350 million units, which is also a 20.3 percent increase from May 2017.

Single-family starts, which account for the largest share of the housing market, rose 3.9 percent from April to May and were up 18.3 percent annually. Multi-family dwellings of five or more units rose 11.3 percent monthly and jumped 27.4 percent annually.

However, future new construction could ease a bit as Building Permits fell 4.6 percent monthly after declining in April.

Stocks struggled in the latest week due in part to escalating trade war tensions while Mortgage Bonds leveled off after a few weeks of high volatility. Home loan rates remain near historically low levels.

If you or someone you know has any questions about home loan rates, please give me a call. I'd be happy to help.

 
 
 
Forecast for the Week  
     
 
The week's broad array of economic data has the potential to move the markets, as does any geopolitical or trade war tensions.
  • In the housing sector, look for New Home Sales Monday, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Tuesday and Pending Home Sales Wednesday.
  • Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday. The Consumer Sentiment Index follows on Friday.
  • Manufacturing news comes via Durable Goods Orders data on Wednesday and the Chicago PMI on Friday.
  • Thursday brings the final reading on first quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product along with weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
  • Look for news on inflation Friday with Personal Consumption Expenditures, along with Personal Income and Personal Spending data.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds have held steady in recent days. Home loan rates remain historically attractive.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0%% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jun 22, 2018)
Japanese Candlestick Chart
 
 
 

The Mortgage Market Guide View...  
     
  \  
     
 
Anticipating FAQs

Client questions are a natural part of doing business. If you find yourself fielding the same questions repeatedly, here are some easy ways to save yourself time while also improving your clients' experiences:

Analyze and categorize client challenges. Your clients likely have varying needs. For example, retirees would have different concerns over investments, insurance coverage, or buying and selling property than a young family. Write down common questions you receive from different groups and organize them accordingly.

Create a series of social media or blog posts describing client challenges and solutions. Consider making it a weekly theme like "FAQ Friday" where you can answer real questions that come in from clients, for example: "What happens to my deposit?" for real estate clients, or "How can I lower my premiums and still be covered?" for insurance clients. Create an e-book that people can download using the same information.

Use automated emails and scripts for reoccurring inquiries and status updates about forward momentum on client files and acknowledging receipt of documentation. Consider keeping a file of replies for specific instances that you can easily copy and paste into a reply email. Depending on your field, this could include questions on receiving a deposit or earnest money, when a building phase has been completed, or what to do if clients haven't received their tax refund yet.

Regularly review and update the FAQs on your website and other collateral. Include a link to FAQs in your email signature.

Let these ideas be a springboard for ways you can anticipate and answer client needs, and provide an extraordinary experience that leads to more business with less effort.

Source: Inc.


Economic Calendar for the Week of June 25 - June 29

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. June 25
10:00
New Home Sales
May
666K
689K
646K
Moderate
Tue. June 26
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Jun
127.1
 
128.0
Moderate
Wed. June 27
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
May
-1.0%
 
-1.7%
Moderate
Wed. June 27
10:00
Pending Home Sales
May
0.8%
 
-1.3%
Moderate
Thu. June 28
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
6/23
220K
 
221K
Moderate
Thu. June 28
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q1
1.9%
 
1.9%
Moderate
Thu. June 28
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q1
2.2%
 
2.2%
Moderate
Fri. June 29
08:30
Personal Income
May
0.4%
 
0.3%
Moderate
Fri. June 29
08:30
Personal Spending
May
0.4%
 
0.6%
Moderate
Fri. June 29
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
May
0.2%
 
0.2%
HIGH
Fri. June 29
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
 
1.8%
HIGH
Fri. June 29
09:45
Chicago PMI
Jun
61.0
 
62.7
Moderate
Fri. June 29
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Jun
99.0
 
99.3
Moderate