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Mortgage America Inc
 
Provided to you Exclusively
By
Kevin McGilloway
 
Kevin McGilloway, NMLS # 128664
Senior Loan Officer
Mortgage America Inc
Office: 610-684-4100
Cell: 267-307-8188
Fax: 215-701-4356
E-Mail: homloan4u@aol.com
 
Kevin McGilloway, NMLS # 128664
 
For the week of May 21, 2018 --- Vol. 16, Issue 21
In This Issue
 
Last Week in Review: Housing Starts stall in April, while registers were ringing at retailers.

Forecast for the Week: Look for the latest news on New and Existing Home Sales.

View: Never forget another password again with help from these apps!


Last Week in Review
 
"When she gets there she knows, if the stores are all closed." Led Zeppelin. Retailers fared well in April, as consumers spent broadly across most retail sectors after a slow start in the beginning of the year.

Retail Sales rose 0.3 percent from March to April, the Commerce Department reported, with sales highest at furniture stores, clothing stores and gasoline stations. On a year-over-year basis, Retail Sales jumped a solid 4.7 percent. The Retail Sales report is a measure of the total receipts of retail stores from samples representing all sizes and kinds of businesses throughout the nation, making it a key indicator regarding the state of our economy.

Home construction was a different story in April, however. Construction on new homes declined in April from March due in part to a rise in the price of lumber. April Housing Starts fell 3.7 percent from March to an annual rate of 1.287 million units, below expectations. Single-family home starts, which make up a big chunk of residential construction, rose 0.1 percent from March to April, while multi-dwelling starts of five or more units fell 12.6 percent. On a positive note, Housing Starts were up 10.5 percent from April 2017.

Building Permits, a sign of future construction, fell 1.8 percent from March to an annual rate of 1.352 million units. National Association of Home Builders Chairman Randy Noel explained, "The record-high cost of lumber is hurting builders' bottom lines and making it more difficult to produce competitively priced houses for newcomers to the market."

Mortgage Bonds struggled in the latest week, falling below a key technical level and hitting seven-year lows. Home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds and, as a result, rates hit seven-year highs. However, rates remain attractive on a historical basis.

If you or someone you know has any questions about home loans, please contact me. I'd be happy to help.


Forecast for the Week
 
Housing news highlights an otherwise quiet week. The Bond markets will close early Friday at 2:00 p.m. ET ahead of the Memorial Day weekend, while Stocks are open for a normal session.
  • We'll get a double dose of housing news this week with New Home Sales on Wednesday and Existing Home Sales on Thursday.
  • The May Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes will be released Wednesday.
  • As usual, weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday.
  • On Friday, Durable Goods Orders and the Consumer Sentiment Index will be released.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds fell to seven-year lows in the latest week.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday May 18, 2018)
Japanese Candlestick Chart


The Mortgage Market Guide View...
 
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Economic Calendar for the Week of May 21 - May 25

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Wed. May 23
08:30
New Home Sales
Apr
677K
 
694K
Moderate
Wed. May 23
02:00
FOMC Minutes
May
NA
 
NA
HIGH
Thu. May 24
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
5/19
220K
 
222K
Moderate
Thu. May 24
10:00
Existing Home Sales
Apr
5.57M
 
5.60M
Moderate
Fri. May 25
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Apr
-1.6%
 
2.6%
Moderate
Fri. May 25
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
May
98.8
 
98.8
Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: homloan4u@aol.com

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

Kevin McGilloway
600 West Germantown Pike Suite 400
Plymouth Meeting, PA 19462

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