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Mike Premny
Mike Premny
Office: 415-543-9300
Fax: 415-543-9301
E-Mail: mikep@iconcap.com
Website: www.iconcap.com
Mike Premny
For the week of Jan 22, 2018 --- Vol. 16, Issue 4
In This Issue
Last Week in Review: Housing Starts saw a steep decline in December, while the uncertainty regarding the government shutdown led to market volatility.

Forecast for the Week: Look for the latest news on home sales and the first read on economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2017.

View: Multitask on your computer with ease thanks to these shortcuts for viewing multiple windows at once.

Last Week in Review
"If I had a hammer, I'd hammer in the morning. I'd hammer in the evening, all over this land." The Weavers. There was less hammering around the country in December, as construction of new homes saw a steep decline from November.

December Housing Starts came in at 1.192 million annualized units, the Commerce Department reported, falling 8.2 percent from November and driven lower by a sharp decrease in single-family units. December's reading marked the largest monthly percentage drop since November 2006.

Single-family starts plunged nearly 12 percent from November, though they did increase 3.5 percent from December 2016. Multi-family dwellings rose 2.6 percent from November but plummeted 21 percent from the same time a year ago.

Building Permits, a sign of future construction, were essentially unchanged from November at an annual rate of 1.302 million units. Overall, this was a disappointing report for potential homebuyers facing inventory shortages around much of the country.

Homebuilders are still feeling confident, however, as the January National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index came in at 72, just below the 74 registered in December. The index measures data from a survey of homebuilders and asks respondents to rate conditions for current single-family home sales, sales in the next six months and traffic from prospective buyers. Any reading over 50 is considered positive sentiment.

The markets were volatile in recent days as the threat of a government shutdown loomed, causing Mortgage Bonds to move lower. Though home loan rates have risen, they remain attractive and near historic lows.

If you or someone you know has questions about home loans please contact me. I'm always happy to help.

Forecast for the Week
News on the housing sector and economic growth dominate the second half of the week.
  • Look for housing data on Wednesday with Existing Home Sales, followed by New Home Sales on Thursday.
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also be released on Thursday.
  • On Friday, Durable Goods Orders and the first reading on fourth quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product will be delivered.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds have fallen in recent days. Home loan rates still remain near historic lows.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 19, 2018)
Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View...
Tech Tip: How to Use Split Screen

Without dual monitors, arranging two windows side by side on your computer can be a tedious process of manually clicking and dragging corners until they fit. Thanks to Split View or Split Screen features for PC and Mac, you can quickly arrange windows for side-by-side viewing. Here's how it's done:

Windows 7, 8 and 10 users can initiate the Snap feature by grabbing an open window (by left clicking on it) and dragging it to the right or left side of the screen until you see a translucent frame appear. The window will automatically resize or "snap" to occupy the frame on the side you selected. Grab another open window and snap it to the opposite side. Learn about even more split screen features for Windows.

For Macs with OS X El Capitan or later, users hold down the green full-screen button in the upper-left corner of an open window, causing it to shrink. While still holding the green button, drag the window to the left or right side of the screen and release. Follow the same process with another open window, and drag it to the opposite side. To exit split screen mode, click the green full-screen button again and the windows will return to normal size. You can use split view with iPad too.

Multitasking has never been easier with split screen. Stay tuned for next month's awesome tech tip!

Sources: Online Tech Tips, Apple

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 22 - January 26

Economic Report
Wed. January 24
Existing Home Sales
Thu. January 25
Jobless Claims (Initial)
Thu. January 25
New Home Sales
Fri. January 26
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Fri. January 26
GDP Chain Deflator
Fri. January 26
Durable Goods Orders

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

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Mike Premny
563 Castro Street
San Francisco CA 94114

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