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All Western Mortgage, Inc.
 
Provided to you Exclusively by Scott Pisan
 
 
 
Scott Pisan
Sr. Loan Officer
NMLS # 301447
All Western Mortgage, Inc.
Office: (702) 556-2862
Cell: (702) 556-2862
Fax: (702) 997-7177
E-Mail: spisan@allwestern.com
 
Scott Pisan
 
For the week of Dec 17, 2018 --- Vol. 16, Issue 51
In This Issue
 
Last Week in Review: What is Influencing Rates Today?

Forecast for the Week: What Will the Fed Do and Say?

View: Learn How Podcasts Can Help Your Business

Last Week in Review
 



















"It's a tug of war, we expected more"... Tug of War, Paul McCartney

Home loan rates bounced around this week, due to volatility in the U.S. Bond market, but went into the weekend still near three-month lows.

There are push/pull items that continue to limit how low and high rates can go. Here is what home shoppers should know:

Factors currently limiting how low rates can go:
  1. Tight U.S. labor market.
  2. Rising wages, fastest pace in a decade.
  3. Soaring business and consumer confidence.
  4. Solid economic growth.
  5. Tough technical barriers (look at chart below).
Factors currently limiting how high rates can go:
  1. Slowing economic conditions around the globe.
  2. Low global bond yields - German 10-year Bond yield is 0.28% and the U.S. 10-year Note yield is 2.90%. If yields stay low in other parts of globe, there is a limit as to how high long-term rates can go.
  3. Disinflation or slowdown in the rate of inflation around globe, including the U.S.
  4. A split Congress that likely ensures no real fiscal stimulus in the near future.
  5. Pace of Fed rates hikes are slowing due to all of the above.

Bottom line, we are in a very unique economy where we have strong growth, a tight labor market, low inflation and low rates...all making a great backdrop to buy a home.


If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help.

Forecast for the Week
 
Next week it's all about the Fed! The scheduled two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting will kick off on Tuesday and ends Wednesday with the release of the monetary policy statement at 2:00 p.m. ET.

The financial markets have placed an 80% probability that the Fed will increase the short-term Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% to 2.75%. With the rate hike expected, what the statement reveals regarding the path of future interest rate moves may be the market moving event.

Come Friday, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the annual Core PCE, will be released. With future rate hikes being mostly determined by the rate of inflation - this is an important number to track.

Reports to watch:

  • The Empire Manufacturing Index will be delivered on Monday followed by the Philadelphia Fed Index on Thursday.
  • Housing Starts and Building Permits will be released on Tuesday followed by Existing Home Sales on Wednesday.
  • The final reading on third-quarter Gross Domestic Product will be released on Friday along with Core PCE.


Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 14, 2018)
Japanese Candlestick Chart


The Mortgage Market Guide View...
 
Tip: The Power of Podcasts

Podcasts are one of the hottest mediums being used in marketing today. Regular podcast listeners will tune in to up to five hours of podcasting a week. Why are podcasts becoming more and more popular? As your clients' daily lives become more hectic, multitasking becomes even more vital. That means absorbing information while working out, relaxing on the couch, or during their daily commutes.

Being interviewed as a guest on a podcast is a fantastic way to help boost your personal SEO and convey your brand image to a wide range of potential clients in a short period of time. To make the most of a podcast interview, always make sure:

  • The information you provide is interview-worthy, easy to understand, and valuable.

  • The podcast topic is a good fit with your brand image and that you're providing information to an audience in your target market.

Podcasts can not only be used to boost your personal brand, but they can also be a great way to interact with potential clients, help build yourself up as an expert in the industry, show your confidence, and even help build up your social media following. The best part is that you don't have to have a degree in marketing or journalism to be effective in a podcast. Unlike other media, podcasting is meant to be informal, interactive, and informational.

Creating podcasts or being a guest on them is an excellent way to establish trust, get your name out as an expert in the industry, and build up your personal brand. Loyal listeners can quickly turn into loyal customers.

Sources: Huffington Post, Search Engine Land

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 17 - December 21

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. December 17
08:30
Empire State Index
Dec
20.0
 
23.3
Moderate
Mon. December 17
10:00
Housing Market Index
Dec
61
56
60
Moderate
Tue. December 18
08:30
Housing Starts
Nov
1.230K
 
1.228M
Moderate
Tue. December 18
08:30
Building Permits
Nov
1.270K
 
1.263M
Moderate
Tue. December 18
10:00
Existing Home Sales
Nov
5.20M
 
5.22M
Moderate
Wed. December 19
02:00
FOMC Meeting
Dec
0.25%
 
2.50%
HIGH
Thu. December 20
08:30
Philadelphia Fed Index
Dec
17.5
 
12.9
HIGH
Thu. December 20
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
12/15
221K
 
206K
Moderate
Fri. December 21
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Nov
1.7%
 
-4.4%
Moderate
Fri. December 21
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q3
3.5%
 
3.5%
HIGH
Fri. December 21
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q3
1.7%
 
1.7%
HIGH
Fri. December 21
08:30
Personal Income
Nov
0.3%
 
0.2%
Moderate
Fri. December 21
08:30
Personal Spending
Nov
0.3%
 
0.4%
Moderate
Fri. December 21
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Nov
0.2%
 
0.1%
HIGH
Fri. December 21
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
 
1.8%
HIGH

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

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Scott Pisan
All Western Mortgage, Inc.
NMLS# 14210
8345 W. Sunset Rd. #380
Las Vegas, NV 89113
(702)369-0905

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