MMG Weekly

Provided to you Exclusively
by
Lillian Wong

For the week of Feb 25, 2019 | Vol. 17, Issue 8

Lillian Wong
Sr. Loan Officer
NMLS ID 630337
Lillian Wong & Associates
Commerce Home Mortgage
Office: 480-650-5412
E-Mail: lillian@lillianwong.com
Website: www.lillianwong.net

Lillian Wong & Associates<br>Commerce Home Mortgage

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: Minutes Revealed

Forecast for the Week: Fed Encore on Capitol Hill

View: Learn how implementing a human interaction strategy supplements your online presence.

Last Week in Review

'All we need is just a little patience'...Patience by Guns N' Roses

The highlight of this past week was the Fed Minutes from the January Fed Meeting. The Minutes are a detailed record of the Fed's monetary policy setting meeting, so the markets gain insight into the psyche of the Fed as it relates to interest rates, the economy and more.

What the markets heard loud and clear from the meeting Minutes was PATIENCE -- meaning, the Fed is in no rush to hike interest rates and they will watch the incoming economic data to determine when they might hike again. There is now a low probability for another hike in 2019.

What are the most important reports the Fed is watching which can influence rates?

Gross Domestic Product
Inflation (big report next week -- more on that below)
Jobs Report
Consumer Confidence
Retail Sales

In response to the Minutes, mortgage bond prices and thus home loan rates are hovering near the best levels in a year.

If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help.

Forecast for the Week

This coming week has a number of risk-filled events for the markets to digest.

Economic data for the week is chockful of reports that will cover a broad spectrum of the U.S. economy with the highlight being the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the annual Core PCE, currently at 1.9 percent. Remember, the Fed's goal is for 2 percent inflation year over year.

The Bond markets will have to deal with a whopping total of $113 billion in added supply from the Treasury in 2, 5 and 7-year T Notes being sold. This huge amount of new debt can put downward pressure on prices and upward pressure on rates.

The main event for next week will be Fed Chair Powell's first semi-annual monetary policy report in front of the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and in front of the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. Chairman Powell's monetary policy position has been dovish since early January, thereby helping Stocks move higher -- we shall see if he maintains the same stance and outlook.

Reports to watch:

Housing data will come from Tuesday's S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index and New Home Sales followed by Wednesday's Pending Home sales.
Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday with Consumer Sentiment on Friday.
Manufacturing data will be delivered with Thursday's Chicago PMI and the ISM Index on Friday.
As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be announced on Thursday.
The first reading on fourth quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product will be released on Thursday.
That brings us to Friday's Core PCE data, along with Personal Spending and Incomes.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 22, 2019)

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

Tip: How does human interaction strategy help in your online marketing?

Online marketing and e-commerce are now the order of the day. In fact, 96 percent of Americans shop online. So is there any value in complimenting your online marketing strategy with a human interaction strategy?

Author Yuval Harari explains in his book, "Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind," that pro-social and community behavior are hot-wired human traits. As humans, we have relied on in-person experiences throughout history to progress and build societies. One of the biggest drivers of a sharing economy is community building.

Human interaction plays a powerful role. An in-person meeting puts a face behind the brand and builds a foundation. Just shaking hands enhances a business relationship. This personal connection helps to build credibility and trust, resulting in a positive retention impact.

Your connection improves when you reach out in person. When you meet a person, you are able to learn much more about him or her than what you learn from online interactions. Face-to-face conversations are rarely only one-sided, and this interaction with customers is very valuable for future marketing decisions.

Strong partnerships are built with human interaction. By attending industry events, you can stay current and build a network that can be helpful for future business. Talking to contemporaries and the competition is advantageous. This in-person interaction lets you establish a human touch point with like-minded people. Take notes on all interaction, and then keep in contact with new connections by email, social media, or direct mail.

Implementing a human interaction strategy can certainly be an effective supplement to your online presence.

Sources: Iamagazine, Skyword

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 25 - March 01

Date	ET	Economic Report	For	Estimate	Actual	Prior	Impact
Tue. February 26	08:30	Building Permits	Dec	1.290M		1.328M	Moderate
Tue. February 26	08:30	Housing Starts	Dec	1.254M		1.256M	Moderate
Tue. February 26	09:00	S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index	Dec	4.5%		4.7%	Moderate
Tue. February 26	10:00	Consumer Confidence	Feb	125.0		120.2	Moderate
Wed. February 27	10:00	Pending Home Sales	Jan	-0.4%		-2.2%	Moderate
Thu. February 28	08:30	Jobless Claims (Initial)	2/23	221K		216K	Moderate
Thu. February 28	08:30	Chicago PMI	Feb	57.5		56.7	Moderate
Thu. February 28	08:30	GDP Chain Deflator	Q4	1.7%		1.8%	HIGH
Thu. February 28	08:30	Gross Domestic Product (GDP)	Q4	2.3%		3.4%	HIGH
Fri. March 01	08:30	Personal Spending	Dec	-0.2%		0.4%	Moderate
Fri. March 01	08:30	Personal Income	Dec	0.3%		0.2%	Moderate
Fri. March 01	08:30	Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE	YOY	NA		1.9%	HIGH
Fri. March 01	08:30	Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE	Dec	NA		0.1%	HIGH
Fri. March 01	10:00	ISM Index	Feb	56		56.6	HIGH
Fri. March 01	10:00	Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)	Feb	95.6		95.5	Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

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Lillian Wong
Lillian Wong & Associates
Commerce Home Mortgage
2198 E Camelback Rd Ste 380
Phoenix, AZ 85016

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